More settled weather across Europe
Rental conditions continued to improve across Europe. Jones Lang LaSalle’s latest Office Weather Forecast shows that the majority of the 27 markets are expecting either stabilisation or rental growth over the next 12 months. Wetter conditions are still persisting in several locations, however, and three markets recorded rental falls over the last quarter. Eight markets are anticipating further declines later in the year compared with 12 at the end of Q1.
We expect to see more sunshine breaking through the clouds as we move forward through the remainder of the year, as more of the markets see a return to rental growth in 2011.
This map is based upon Jones Lang LaSalle’s proprietary prime office data and June office forecasts.
Use the tool on the left to zoom in, drag the map to view other areas.
Print Summer 2010 Weather Map
% changes in Turkey are based on Euros and in Russia on USD.
*Q2 2009 – Q2 2010
**Q1 2010 – Q2 2010
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, July 2010
The weather symbols provide an indication of how Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts prime rents will move over the next 12 months in each market. The intensity of the weather symbol is a relative measure comparing how the forecast relates to historic 10-year volatility. Each market is therefore assessed relative to its own rental cycle. Market symbols are not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. The symbols and figures refer to prime face rental values.
The weather symbols provide an indication of how Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts prime rents will move over the next 12 months in each market. The intensity of the weather symbol is a relative measure comparing how the forecast relates to historic 10-year volatility. Each market is therefore assessed relative to its own rental cycle. Market symbols are not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. The figures refer to prime face rental values.
Notes on Weather Symbols
The weather symbols provide an indication of how Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts prime rents will move over the next 12 months in the each market. These are generalised representations based on both a technical methodology - examining long term average rental growth and market volatility - and market sentiment.
Maximum rate of rental growth: The rate of rental growth will approach its maximum level both in terms of its speed and significance over the next 12 months, indicating that the market will reach the peak of its rental growth cycle. Reference is made to short term forecasts, market sentiment, historical rental growth and rental volatility.
Rents growing: Rental values will increase over the next 12 months but the market will not reach its peak. The symbol considers a consensus based upon historical market data and sentiment, with reference to short term forecasts.
Rents stagnating: Prime rents are forecast to stay flat over the next 12 months. More often the rents stagnating symbol indicates a period subsequent to positive rental growth and suggests a period of declining rents in the medium term.
Rents falling: Rental values will decline over the next 12 months. The symbol considers a consensus based upon historical market data and sentiment, with reference to short term forecasts.
Maximum rate of rental decline: The rate of rental decline will approach its maximum level both in terms of its speed and significance over the next 12 months, indicating that the market has reached the bottom of its rental growth cycle. Reference is made to short term forecasts, market sentiment, historical rental growth and rental volatility.
Rents stabilising: Prime rents are forecast to stay flat over the next 12 months. More often the rents stabilising symbol indicates a period subsequent to declining rental falls and suggests a period of growing rents.
Please contact us directly to discuss any of the issues raised here or for more information on our research and forecasting capability.
Bill Page
Head of EMEA Offices Research
bill.page@eu.jll.com
Frances Ketteringham
Senior Analyst
EMEA Research
frances.ketteringham@eu.jll.com
Alan Gardner
Head of Forecasting
alan.gardner@eu.jll.com